B7,
there are always winners and losers.
Zinc and lead were snotted when other minerals were rising.
To say everything gets the boot at the same time is wrong, as each commodity has their own factors.
Next you will be saying gold is heading back under a $1000.
For some reason your mind is made up and you are looking for on-going justifications.
Another example, is the demand from China directly proportional to met coal and iron ore demand? I would have thought the nature/type of end use matters, whether you are building generators for power stations (copper), solar products (silver) or houses/skyscrappers (cement and steel).
In terms of my recent numbers, your guess is a good as mine. The best anyone can do is aim for the lowest cash cost operation, and invest their if you truly believe the sky is falling.
What I would like to know, is why you are so obtuse? Are you getting info from someone at the pub at Cloncurry, hence the reluctance?
I don't understand this air of "I know something and you guys have to guess" like some Cluedo game.
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