I Kalimaya, you have one strong point regarding cornerstone protection, could that not be achieved by someone holding a 25-30% holding? Seems to me also that the board will become virtually untouchables for the 49% if we dont like how the company direction or financial discipline is going.
Do we want to be a company built on debt? will their be strings attached to that debt? will there be currency risk with that debt?
I'm not knowledgeable enough to give you an answer as to how / who else we can get that cornerstone protection from, whether JV's for TI are an option to defend ourselves?
I dont buy the money arguement, It's way more than we need, at least up front, our margin last qtr will be approx 400/oz so lets say profit of $18 million, december qtr so far is looking much stronger, average spot is near AUD 1750, so 550 margain on 45koz would be $25mil
if the forecasts for gold to go to +-2200 next year then we are looking at qtrly profits of $36mil at spot $2k
all this is assuming no increase on production or increase in grade or decrease in costs. very much beercoaster calculations.
My dislike of being a semistate with the Chinese govt is they have a different agenda, they want to buy gold, dont think they will want the ore directly, but it is in their interest to increase supply to the market as much as possible regardless of the profitability, and all profit would be pumped back into the ground to keep increasing production, who knows when we will realise a profit, we could end up a very large, heavily debt laden investment vehicle, bigger than NCM but still sailing close to the wind financially. Everyone is invested for profit & there is more than one way to skin a cat, I'd like to keep my fur.
Don's aside re wanting to get to pay dividends lacked conviction, he may well want that, that doesnt mean he will get it. There is nothing material for us to have conviction in, no guarantees of direction, just asked to take a massive leap of faith & give unconditional trust that the companmt will take the direction for the best interests of minority holders.
I'm sure if I spend a day thinking obout it, I could possibly convey my feelings more eloquently & clearly, but Yes Kali, you have a great point re cornersone protection.
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