Outlook slides from AGM Presentation refer to the board being cautious and that it is difficult to predict demand going forward.
That's excatly the same conservative message that was included in the outlook commentary at the time of the release of the FY12 full-year results (the same cuatious tone was converyed and at the interim result, as well as the FY11 full-year result).
And yet despite this "challenging" macro environment revenue increased by 6% in DH11, and by 9% in JH12, and now they say that revneue growth for the current half is running at 10%.
Under-promising and over-delivery: that's what we've become accustomed to from ARP.
FY12's EPS growth was capped at a mere 3% after a significant investment in marketing and human resources in FY12 that saw employee costs-to-revenue rise to 21.5% in FY12 (up from 19.9% in FY11 and 19.4% in FY10).
This revenue resiliance I believe bears testimony to this investment "ahead-of-the-curve" already paying off, and I'm sure we are back into the happy realm of organic EPS growth in the teens in coming years.
And remember that growth is all internally funded and to occur without recourse to shareholders for a single dollar...just like the 19% pa CAGR in EPS has been for the past decade.
With the construction of the second factory in Thailand now completed, I foresee the net cash balance rising to above $60m over by the end of FY13.
ARP is trading at EV/EBITDA of 9.7x, and P/E multiple of 15x (after adjusting for the cash balance), which I think continues to undervalue this premium-quality business.
Not often one comes across a sleep-easy investment that offers 15%pa growth in intrinsic value with negligible risk.
Cam
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