white elephant, page-102

Firsova thanks for the comment and taking the time to repost it without I presume a few words.

I have been re-looking this stock for a few weeks now and have come to the following conclusions:

1. Part of the process must work if you are able to return AL to the supplier. I would presume that would be the same for the Salt /potash mix as well but it would only have one taker for that mix. The al80 I think is a problem and probably why others have used it for filler and even as part of a fertiliser compound. AL80 seems to be the huge volume and as such needs to be dealt with otherwise you need an ever increasing storage depot.

2. Its clear that the USA is going to have to deal with this other than by way of landfill in the future. Maybe not tomorrow but a few years out the Greenies will be able to block new landfill permits IMO. By the way outside of personal motives I think its an imperative for the whole world to get this done. When this happens the need for a technological solution becomes critical. That is why I believe that the company starting with A is so hell bent on helping mhm get it done. I also believe that they have lost faith in the old management and hence why it was possible to have a palace revolution - The entire board has rolled without even a meeting - that is almost unheard of in this country. Bluntly put a 10% shareholder has taken control.

3. I dont think the parties that are now joining the board would have done so if they had not got faith in the process. That is why PT joined first than he became the MD and than Bfarming bought the options and underwrote the options. Now they join the board etc etc. I think that things have been happening for the past 6 months that we will not get to hear about.

4. The silica in my book has no value and until Tasmania is desperate for jobs the resource wont be mined or a smelter built. The anti everything party there will make sure of that. So IMO no value can be placed on that red herring. I dont even think you could sell the resource for much and certainly not what has been spent on this mining and exploration division.

5. Personally the money invested by shareholders in this company IMO has been badly spent propping up a team that has not IMO faced the issues head on but painted a rosy picture.

6. That being the case how can you evaluate what is there and what the opportunity is:

6.1 The cash is cash - about 3 c per share.
6.2 The building in the USA nothing - it was empty for a long time.
6.3 Geelong - I think SIMS moved to their new no-salt process and were happy because the Alreco was not working for them. So land and buildings etc etc not much.

Maybe all in there is 10c of value but probably 10c of costs to access it so the share is worthless.

What is left is the unknown so for the first time I believe in the efficient market theory. We have an unlimited resource mining stock but we have a few variables:

1. Can we process the ore - We know we can partially process it and one part a critical part is giving us trouble. Any such problem should have a solution normally.

2. Can we process it and make money. I think that the company beginning with A knows that you need a solution - the problem of the input product is that one day you will have to process it - no landfill. So they will assist where possible but will only launch a campaign and marketing plunge when it is working. So you will be able to make money if it is cheaper than the alternatives. Dont cost landfill as that is on its way out.

3. The opportunity is no different to a mining exploration company only the variables are different. the variable is that we have no idea of cost as we have not finished defining the extraction process.

I would want a ten bagger plus to invest in this I am not sure how valuable it can or will be but 26c is expensive at this point in time IMO. I think we like a lot of these companies will have to have at least 2 or 3 Cr's to get everything up and running. The shares in issue will blow out because of this. so I have range of value depending on the review but at its to is 30c and at the bottom is 10c.

Sorry but that is my reality - will I buy more? - who knows the review and subsequent progress is critical. I look often at LYC (have traded it successfully to date - not sure that its all been by design - I think more by luck) I am not sure that that company can have a market cap of a billion when it has never proved the process - I think its just sheer inertia of the investors that keeps the value up there. Prices have dropped for its product its had enormous roadblocks yet it holds up.

This is not the share I bought into and I am not in the camp thinking that there is any good news in what has just happened to us , other than we seem to have a reliable team at the helm now. The previous management deserve a lot more criticism than just losing their jobs IMO. This is not the company and its position that was painted in the announcements over the past 3 years. I would not have paid more than 20c for this today and that is what my lowest price was a few years ago.


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