I didn't mean irrational exuberance in terms of recent SP movements. I agree 100% with your timeline and analysis below.
However, saying that CTP will be worth X billion dollars based on its acreage held and the value of some distant proven shale acreage adjacent to a market and a truckload of infrastructure isn't much more than a nice dream.
CTP at present has zero proven oil shale assets. Zero proven coal assets. Zero proven gas/helium assets. We're not even sure what Surprise might be yet. I doubt CTP is either. Placing billion dollar + values on CTP is premature since the Santos JV might find nothing at all. But then again there might, which is why we are shareholders.
I think its extremely likely that large amount of moose pasture in the CTP portfolio will be relinquished over time. Placing a high dollar value per acre against the whole portfolio or even 1% of is wishful thinking. How many $5 billion plus companies are on the ASX now? Four if I'm not mistaken. And its only 6 that are north of 1 billion (quickly double-checks Karoon, Buru and Beach...).
Sure! It could happen. I'd love it to happen. But it is unlikely to happen.
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