what have we learnt so far

I thought it might be time for a new thread.

So what do we know and not know

1, Dry gas was intersected from 2,850 to 3,350m or so with in the Goldwyer formation.

2, No wet gas or oil show have been reported

3, No evidences of a pre-salt conventional reservoir being present has been reported

4, Good core recovery which is need for lab frac testing etc Additional side wall cores planned post wireline logs (including a combination gamma tool maybe) being run.

5, Well TD somewhere within the Willara formation. Shallower than expected but I imagine that the rocks were becoming so cemented and consolidated that well was in economic basement

6, Speculating the well appears to have similar bottom hole stratigraphic to Kidson 1 drilled in 1966 by Wapet.

So what do we need to know is

a, Has the cored section of the Goldwyer have any source potential (the black marine shale is a positive maybe).

b, What is the current thermal maturity of the possible Goldwyer source.

Based upon experience a good high quality source rock (eg Kimmeridge Clay) that has generated oil and wet gas is normally identifiable from core and cutting at the surface (it smells of hydrocarbons plus microscopic oil fluorescence can be seen in cuttings).

Only if the source rock is over mature are you left with just dry gas and limited smell.

So speculating again I say at this location at these depths the Goldwyer might well be over mature for wet gas and oil.

The good news that the next two wells are targeting the same possible Goldwyer source rock at I believe different depths so hopefully different maturity'.

Although I do have some concerns as the recent NSE presentation at the Euroz Oil and Gas conference which show that the Goldwyer is deeper at Gibb Maitland location so maybe more mature or over mature.

Maybe NSE should drill Blatchford 1 first as it shallower. There again you can have different geothermal heat flows over such a distance.

Conversely we could also speculate that the Goldwyer at Nicolay 1 are immature hence Gibb Maitland 1 location would be ideal. I personally will only give that a 10% chance.

Good luck all.