I must say that the quality of posters and general debate on this board is truly excellent. Well done to all who have contributed and made this forum particularly interesting to read.
My question is why is it different this time for ABU than it was for TAM???
That is the key uncertainty I just cannot seem to comprehend. OK Old Pirate appears better than Coyote from a mineralisation perspective grade etc, but still ABM has so much to do and tons of execution risk before they can put the money in the bank.
I remember TAM being touted for over a decade time and time again (just like ABM is now) and all the while there was problem after problem, dilution after dilution. How is ABM any different? What makes it such a solid proposition? TAM and Newmont must be pretty unhappy they sold all these tenements to ABM for such a song. Especially TAM (Old pirate was on their tenement right?) How much did they pay? $1.5m cash and some 1.5c 2014 options!!! Yes - thats all. No wonder they dont want to just buddy up and let them use their treatment plant at Coyote. They must be pissed they didn't find OP and had to spin ABM out.
How much money is required to bring in the cashflow? Does management have any experience or skill commercially with bringing something like this into production and financing it intelligently (ala Avoca, FMG) so as to not be diluted into oblivion? Or is dilution totally necessary to live up to the billing of Old Pirate? Have they thought about bringing in a large experienced and well funded operating partner (ala Independence/Tropicana)? What do they need to give away to get there?
Is Darren able to 'execute'? Not just to delineate a great resource, but actually take it to production and put money in the bank? What about the fact that its 'nuggety' gold? Could this end up being another Apex/Bendigo?
These are the key questions/risks I am still uncertain about and brings me back to my question? Why (in comparison to the way TAM has worked out over the last 10 years) is it any different this time?? I don't know the answer to this really and would appreciate any of the sage posters on here to comment.
With gold trading at its current record price, perhaps these are some of the reasons why the share price just isnt responding to the continual good news. With $17m of cash left and a very healthy market capitalisation for something so embryonic (still with so many risks, most notably dilution) I can kind of understand why the shareprice isn't bolting.
Thanks again for everyone's contributions here, so insightful to read!!
Jemma
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