I think it is clear that most of us have a risk profile that appears to be less exacting than yours. Most of the time analysts think they have quantified risk but usually they haven't because some critical strategic point has not been appreciated. This is fine by me, as it enables me to get in ahead of the crowd.
Case in point: oil producers might be able to produce oil for less than $40 barrel. But for how long? what are the quantities involved there? What about carbon taxes and other constraints being brought in by the rapidly shifting policy environment, that affects the economics of a project. Obtaining carbon credits or offsets is part of the package here, but it is not explicit yet because that is an inevitable but as yet unquantified element of the economics.
AEB is an entirely different proposition because the unknown variables, such as land, are not so significant. You need to understand the technology better to appreciate why this is so. I suggest you read and listen more closely.
Further, the amount that can be produced is relatively unrestricted, you are not relying on a limited resource in a limited area. There are synergies involved no doubt, in particular the carbon sources but these dynamics are fiddling at the margins IMO. It's not as if there is a shortage of carbon producing industries, it's a matter of adjusting the technology to the particular specifications involved.
I think you need to get your head around how different this technology is, as you seem to be applying old paradigms to it. Sometimes it is good to step back a bit and not get overly involved in one view or the other, or one methodology over the other.
That said, you might want to wait longer for the uncertainties (which others like me have decided are relatively minor) to be better quantified. IMO this will mean you will pay a premium for greater certainty, and certainty which to my way of thinking, is not really necessary. That is my call and apparently how others are also calling it in here.
This is how it is with speccies. Nothing to do with claimed green credentials or otherwise.
Finally I have no interest in getting you or anyone else on board early, as I haven't got enough AEB and need it to stay in a holding position for a few months yet so I can load up. I hope you appreciate this. Nobody is responsible for looking after anyone in these forums, and you need to DYOR for a reason. Try to understand where people are coming from before you sound off.
DV
AEB Price at posting:
28.0¢ Sentiment: LT Sell Disclosure: Held
