btan: Lufthansa has relatively little to lose and a lot to gain, so why wouldn't they be keen? In the big picture, they're really not risking much, so I see no reason to get too excited about that. Lufthansa gets into all sorts of crazy schemes, perhaps largely for publicity/image.
dolcevita: Yes, it's speculative, and yep, we all know what that means. I have a pretty big appetite for risk and am familiar with grabbing multibaggers and also pretty spectacular losses.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not a charter at all. Thing is, with nothing to go on for a long time, no influence from fundamentals, technicals become the dominant influence, and even the most dedicated of fundamental-based investors knows that technicals do play a huge role (even if they shouldn't). Often charts are ambiguous, but AEB has a really, really ugly one. This mix of fundamentals and technicals is extremely nasty. Without something other than technicals to kick things along, the best reasonable hope is a stagnant share price and far more likely is a decline. Unfortunately it's just a pretty clear case right now, unless AEB pulls a very unexpected rabbit out of a hat, and there's really not a realistically appreciable chance of that in the short to medium term.
Bringing climate change into this is a bit of a red herring. During my studies and work in the science industry I was a bit of a black sheep for being a climate change sceptic. I really don't see it being the big deal it's politically correct to think it is, and either way, few people are going to invest for environmental goals - people invest with financial goals. You speak of efficiencies and synergies like they matter. Sure, it's a lovely story, and yes, if you're a kid writing a science report it's brilliant, but in terms of the bottom line it's not important.
I fully appreciate the value of an energy source; most of my investments are in energy, which is why I'm interested in AEB.
The expertise of the people involved... I think it's fair to say that if you look at the quality of the people running a company, you can either see that they're dodgy characters in which case you want to avoid them at all costs, or you can see that they're good, capable, credible people, in which case they're worth looking at. Plenty of good people run companies which fall over. It doesn't indicate a guarantee of success, especially in a company like this, it's just a lack of a way to confirm failure.
Long term it's a very low chance of a very big return (I don't say that in a negative way, and I'm interested in getting involved if/when the time is right). Short term it's a pretty much guaranteed place to waste money.
Good luck to holders!
AEB Price at posting:
29.0¢ Sentiment: ST Sell Disclosure: Not Held
