For several months now many analysts have recomended investors 'AVOID' or 'SELL' companies in the ASX mining service sector. To some extent i have supported this view and posted many moons back that holders exit iron ore and even coal stks. It sure raises the ire of holders in companies like FMG which have many cast-in-the-wool supporters! i remain pessimistic re several commodities esp IO and coal. Even natural gas seems to be in over-supply.
But as MDs of IMD and SWK have reiterated on several occasions: 'all companies don't fit the same mould'. I have written extensively how SWK has carved a niche in the most profitable of the 4 drilling types... and should not be compared to BLY, ASL and others. IMD is does not have the capex many contractors have esp those investing scores of millions into huge fleets of machinary.
I raise this topic as Roger Montgomery... an analyst i consider especially astute... has written another article in Eureka advising readers to avoid the sector completely. He mentions FGE as a company that appears good buying at current SP... but he won't have it in his portfolio. Roger has been bearish re China for sometime. In today's article he is more pessimistic than ever, and provides plenty evidence to support his view. I too am bearish re China and expect a fairly nasty crash-landing. However, i feel gold is a refuge in a world wracked with uncertainty... and SWK is deeply imbedded in that commodity. Hence, i intend holding my SWK shares, albeit whilst keeping a close eye on world events. The only other large commodity i am bullish on is crude oil.... although it too may struggle to exceed $100 in the short term.
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