valuation, page-7

hotrod,

I agree, a very big reason for nestor’s buoyancy is that 53% ownership like you said. Another huge factor is that I really am of the belief that all the major asset classes in the us are overvalued. Real estate is ridiculous, but it just doesn’t seem there is much else out there worth investing in. the difference between the valuations might reflect this but it’s not like things are cheap in Australia? I know you guys have had a real estate boom. Isn’t it cooling off a bit though?

Sometimes I wonder what would help rdf… If they were listed on a us exchange I think that would help greatly. They would have to probably redo their accounting and have some expenses, but I really think it help with their valuation. I do not think the adr program is going as well as it should. I think they should look into that. For instance, I use yahoo to get my quotes. It shows zero shares traded every time I have looked. I bought a few more shares the other day on it and it took about 3 days to go through. I think that scares people away.

I also think the ohio legislation is hurting. If it affects about 10% of the installs, it surely doesn’t warrant a 35% decrease in price. I know the fear of other states going that way, but that is totally overlooking all the other states happy with the program and adding on speed. Just last night I read an article about Minneapolis. I will try and post the link if I can. It was about redflex’s speed camera’s trial first month run. They underestimated the revenue by 500% to the city. It will not show up on this october’s report cause they are just about to go live. I keep seeing articles like this. These speed cameras are generating a ridiculous amount of revenue. I think it is really going to shock people when the results come out. So much that it could be a liability and I hope the pr department stays on its toes.

I live in Houston, Texas. I really thought there would be a ban on rlc cameras. It was a close call. Having said that, if it were banned, it would be un-banned by the end of the decade. Different states have very different philosophies towards the cameras. It seems the states with more democrats are for the cameras and the more republican are against the cameras. I believe the main factors are public safety and revenue. Texas is a great example for the industry. The republicans get attorney money and are against the cameras. The citizens are for the cameras. The mayors and police chiefs of EVERY major city in texas are for the cameras. Yet, the crooked politicians almost banned them because they get the lobby money. It is going to be interesting if they give up the fight or not. Houston has narrowed the selection process down to a few vendors and they are installing test sites right now. They will then vote on which vendor to choose in about 2 or 3 months. I do not feel good about our Houston chances for reason I’m not getting into. But, this sort of process could possibly benefit redflex cause of the cost associated with setting up the various test sites. A smaller and less financially sound company cannot fund this method and it puts stress on their balance sheet. Something redflex will most likely point out in their presentation and is important given the actions of transol.

There is such a process in the us for a bill to become a law that you can really never know what is going to happen till it’s signed into the books. There are so many stages and so many bills out there that get knocked out at the various stages. Actually, if you are in this for the long term, in which I am. This works to redlex’s advantage. Redflex has the cash flow and profitability to be around for a couple more years. Our competitors do not. Redflex is profitable in this climate of constant tests, marketing, lobbying and very few cities going with rlc and speed. Once they all get on board it is really going to get interesting. That really is key for this thing to take off in having a 2 billion dollar cap. That is my ultimate goal with this one… these guys being the leading world provider for rlc and speed and these things being set up all over. I think that will happen in the not too distant future. Think we will look back at these times with amusement.

Amazon.com tells me I have to pre-order Serpent On The Rock by Kurt Eichenwald for it’s December release. Please tell me if there is another way to find it? Is it out in Australia and not the us? Please let me know. My friend just finished this guys book on enron and said it was great. Looking forward to it. I’ll post some interesting books I’ve read lately when I get a chance. Take care.