MNE 5.26% 3.6¢ metallum limited

another one that looks the real deal...

  1. 15,276 Posts.
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    Today's results are pretty bloody good...

    Not many projects can compare, especially in areas previously unexplored by modern methods.

    Whilst grab-samples can be high-grade due to the nature of how they are cherry-picked...once you get such high results from channel sampling you really need to take notice...it is this that has my interest...continuous zones of high to bonanza-grade mineralisation.

    By way of explanation...whilst a hot grab-sample can give significant grades, the impact of such samples are quickly diluted when you add the material from a continuous sampling process in 1m or 2m composites...typically to obtain say 10kg+ of material, which is then pulped (ground and homogenised), prior to a 50g sample taken and tested via fire-assay.

    So...whilst the odd outlier (grade spike) can and still does occur with such a process, when you get continuous zones over reasonable distances...with numerous and repeatable spikes, you can bet your bottom dollar you might be onto something pretty special.

    I increased my position today in a big way...for me at least...and vary rarely do that on a news day...

    But I suspect we have a relatively short window of opportunity here...

    I think we can all thank the recent 10c placement and looming shortfall stock for such a cheap opportunity...but mostly we can thank the underwriter (Patos's?) who I suspect are selling out in a non-emotive grab for cash...the charts show clear evidence of the net selling pressure on the stock above 10c.

    Regardless...the trend is up, VWAP's keep increasing in spite of the large overhead...prices are still amazingly cheap, the stock has held most of its gains...the news keeps getting better...and there is more to come!

    By the way...am I the only one sensing they have been taking notes of Mark Creasy’s announcement style?

    lol...all up, in terms of a "heads up"...it probably doesn't get much better.

    For what its worth, I suspect most of the selling more or less ended today...if not, then it is very close. In fact, I would not be surprised to learn on Monday the shortfall has in fact been done and dusted over the weekend...paid for with stock sold this week.

    If so...and given the nature of developments in the field...I would expect a major push near-term into the 20's...at least.

    We have seen amazing volumes trade in the last few days...especially for a stock with so few shares on the register...a fair bit of churn (most in fact), definitely net selling going on...but also enough new holders obviously interested in the story.

    I suspect there are also many sitting on their hands waiting to see how low they can get set in the face of the net selling that has been so obvious...patience has usually resulted in a cheaper entry the last few days, whilst the seller was so active...again, this may change next week.

    In this respect, first sniff the overhead selling is over...and watch them fall over themselves fighting for stock.

    In the big picture, considering the potential value-add taking place on MNE right now, today we saw $2m or so bucks change hands...one of the biggest days for this stock...but it is still chicken feed compared to the potential here.

    Wait till the solid results start to roll in...and the serious buyers (who like to wait for drilling results) take positions.

    I expect we will see a completely new trading pattern develop from next week...with volumes significantly less and swings less “available”...and most importantly, the eventual evaporation of the overhead.

    From my experience...this has 50c written all over it based on the prospectivity of today's and last week’s gold results alone...the copper and everything else comes for free.

    And to think they will be drilling based on current work within a few weeks...and people are being spooked into selling on the back of what I see as one of the best buying opportunity we are likely to see in this stock in the next 12 months...

    lol

    By the way, you can tell when a Company is fair-dinkum about adding value to their projects by the nature of the exploration programmes being undertaken...in the field planning and fine-tuning of drill programmes...hard yakka analysis in tough conditions...basically doing what needs to be done to make sure you get maximum bang-for-your-buck when drilling...and of course, chalking up fresh and meaningful results...and keeping the market updated!

    Compare this to drilling programmes planned at a desk, based on some low-res geophysics and a soil sampling programme from back in 1981...and deafening silence for week after week, month after month (because they have nothing worth talking about), that we occasionally see from time to time from groups with little substance.

    MNE has the same feel as SIR in this regard...both are actually giving it a serious go...and both have something to talk about.

    The market throws up some rippers every now and then...SIR was one and I think MNE is the next.

    I am reluctant to make this comparison...as lately it seems everyone is pulling out the "SIR" card to promote their stock...but the EV of MNE given what is transpiring right now really does suggest a similar path is possible.

    It was the low EV relative to the scale of the “potential” of the discovery that set SIR off.

    I like to think my years in the market amount to something every now and then...especially in relation to recognising the bleeding obvious that is about to unfold...potentially!

    I do not go into a stock particularly heavily in one day all that often, as I did today...especially on a news day...but I have a very good feeling about what MNE are up to...and potentially on to.

    When SIR were 23c and everyone thought it was a pump-and-dump based on too little information, I suggested 60c was an obvious target for corporate reasons...and that with a little luck on the results front, prices north of $1 were likely...this was based on the potential of their early results and their market cap. Not the value of the early results, but the potential value.

    One can never be sure about such things...especially early in the days as the story develops...which is why what follows is so important.

    MNE's gold results hold similar value-add potential in my view, with an obvious interim corporate target in the mid 20's...based on what we already know from the field. What follows in terms of definitive results (they are never definitive early mind you) will be the difference between stabilising around the mid 20’s and reaching levels much higher.

    AND...if MNE have some luck with drilling, or additional channel sampling success that puts some real scale on things, then who knows, but at $1 they are still capped under $100m, which is not that much for a decent gold project if they can add some scale to recent results.

    Good luck all.

    Cheers!
 
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