currently, TLS has a good yield but the $64K question is how long can they keep this up?
FY12 EPS = 27.5 cents
FY12 dividends paid = 28 cents
FY12 dividend payout ratio = 102%
TLS must borrow to pay their dividend
blue-chip norm is a 65% to 70% payout ratio, thus TLS, if following commercial norm, should be paying a 19 cent dividend, which would yield 6.8% before tax on a $4.00 share price
will future earnings rise or fall? if fall, TLS seems fully valued based on dividend cut risk at $4.00
balance sheet has:
$4b in cash
$17b in borrowings & derivatives
$12b in net assets
$7b in intangibles
$20b in plant & equipment, who knows what it is really worth?
$4b in annual capital expenditure
$5b in gross cash flow
$3.4b in repayment of borrowings & interest
$3.5b in dividend payments
$2b in cash flow shortfall
$3b in borrowings
thus, $3b must be borrowed to pay a $3.5b dividend, it seems
i am not a financial analyst but, to me, it has the flavour of a Ponzi scheme
all the best
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