I think the strategy with this management team now must be one of step back....let them deliver and only then will we consider to buy its stock.
IMO management have zero credibility. They have continued to make bold predictions about various markets and ventures that they have entered into, and not yet once delivered on any stated goals.
I met with a fund manager a few years ago that was very supportive of CBD and its business plan. They backed that support becoming a substantial holder of script.
The company has burnt that relationship and many others by continually under delivering.
I simply cant trust anything that comes from the company, which gives it a real credibility problem. Having worked with analysts and fundies for 20 years now, I know that one of their top boxes that needs to be ticked before making an investment conviction is 'quality of management'. Hence without fund support, this stock will never rerate in any meaningful way.
I think the SP will continue to slide upon relisting. I also think all institutional holders will exit at a substantial loss.
I also think we will see the SP fall below 1c in coming months and perhaps then it might start looking like a buy...if and only if they start to look like they have a sustainable business model that is set for future growth.
I heard a great line at a fund manager brief this week. He said whats the definition of lossing 90% on a stock?
Its when a company losses 80%, and then halves in value.
The point I guess, is looking at where the SP once was and saying it is cheap compared to that should never give you comfort...as any share price can still halve again.
Kiril
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