third test of us$1800 failed?

A very simplistic look at the 2 year chart, since the all time highs in Aug '11, it appears Gold in US$ has made three attempts to clear $1800, the latest of those in early October now appears to have failed. Gold is now around $1680, around 6-7% retrace.

Similarly silver has had three shots at $35, now back to $30, a 15% retrace.

Will it be a case of three strikes you're out and a major correction due, or is it just oscillating sideways?