mantle exergen latrobe valley demo, page-32

Obe Wan.

It isn't $2bn in and 1.4Bn out. That isn't how an NPV is calculated. The upfront, capital costs are included in the calculation of the NPV figure. You don't "tag that positive figure against the figure that has to be thrown against it upfront" at all, it is included in the calculation.

The $2Bn is calculated as part of the Year 0 cash flow. It's why scoping studies (normally) detail payback years along side NPV - i.e. that number of years it will take to payback the year 0 cash flow.

Yes, as I've said in previous posts, the $1.4Bn NPV is for the project, not for MNM. MNM currently holds 50% of the project, so half that. MNM could farm out 96% of their share and the value for MNM would still be greater than it's current market cap.

You think Exergen will pass on BM. Perhaps they will. Perhaps they will pass up on an opportunity to add $700m in value to their company (remember now, that's not spending $1bn to get $700m back, the $1bn capex is included in the calculation of the $700m). Perhaps they won't. I'll wait for the PFS and BFS before deciding.

If Exergen get to the commercial stage after proving the tech at the demo plant, they'll be looking not for just one income stream. They are a business at that point, looking for shareholder returns and value, just like every other business. It isn't LV or BM, that isn't the choice. Beside, the 150km pipline from LV to port is going to cost ~$500m just itself. BHP didnt just decide to have only one mine and stop there. They have many, even though they have to spend money up front for the new mines, they spend it, because the NPV of the project is huge. It's how you grow a company from a one-mine wonder to something much bigger.

OK, so you think the Greens won't like a BM mine. You are right, they won't. Perhaps they'll reconsider if/when the environmental benefits of BCE is proven and understood by them. Perhaps the state government will weigh up the views of 30 greenies against 1300 jobs and royalties for 25 years and phone calls from TATA power and the Indian Government and make a different decision. Who knows. Cross that bridge when we come to it.

Look, I think alot of this confusion about NPVs etc may have been avoided with something more than a 1-page press release for an announcement, but it is what it is, I've previously made my views on that matter VERY clear. Luckily, MNM have multiple projects on the go. Luckily MNM management hold a significant chunk of shares in the company. Luckily (some may disagree), in this climate, MNM have a $10m financing facility sewn up. Luckily, management and consultants are happy to take fees in shares. Luckily, quarterly administration costs are very low.

Every share has it's risks, and they are different. Every investor has their own risk tolerance, and they are different.