I just saw, that export qoutas for first half of 2011 have been published on December 28th. So maybe only a month till new qoutas comes!
The chinese know:
If they make qoutas higher together with new non-chinese supply the prices will fall. But they want them higher. And they dont get non-chinese companys into china with higher qoutas.
If they let them stable, i think prices will be pretty stable. But china even than dont get more non-chinese companys into china.
Reducing qoutas possible would lead to higher prices. if there is any chance to get new non-chinese companys into china, than is it reducing qoutas.
We are now in a market, where allready a little recykling (as far as possible) is happening, where a little demand has been destroyed because of high prices, where japan and other countrys are looking for only non-chinese REOs.
So china is in a position of the kind: "lost your reputation, you can do as you please"
They allready halted production of REOs. Wouldnt suprise me if they reduce the qoutas for first half of 2013 pretty strong.
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