The broker assumptions I have seen on pricing seem to be way out. Most analysts I know would use either the futures curve or extrapolation of current spot (with some reversion to long term mean however that is worked out). The Broker reports I have seen seem to use spot from a bygone (pre-Fukushima) age. That does not seem prudent and I doubt any substantial financial investor will take such assumptions and conclusion emanating from them at face value.
I guess you may be able to comment on/justify where they got their assumptions from ?
Furthermore I can understand a projected cost of $31/lb uranium and current spot of $40/lb still making it look optically a 'viable' project but surely any sensitivity analysis would say having fallen from $70/lb to $40/lb in such a short space of time the project is a very precarious 1? 'standard deviation' away from unviability ? (apologies my cursory 'analysis' is confined to the uranium part of the project as REE/TREO pricing is too opaque to me but I'm guessing the same financial mechanics would hold true?)
GGG Price at posting:
28.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
