why the panic at profit downgrade?, page-3

Because, 3 weeks ago, it was the research houses looking from outside, in. Now its Telstra looking from inside, out.

The difference - research houses do not have access to all the resources that Telstra has at its own, internal disposal. Now that Telstra is affirming some of that information, some research houses may well be considering that there is more (not less) to come.

Also, the overall earnings curve /momentum for Telstra is fast slowing, all at a time when it may need to consider increasing its CAPEX commitments.

Institutions like dividends and growth. They dislike CAPEX because it immediately detracts available funding from dividends (etc). That's why, in recent times, businesses increasing dividends at the expense of CAPEX (etc) have been rewarded with short-term price spurts (the concept being, think for today, rather than for tomorrow).

Some institutions may well also be thinking that the increased /special dividends of the last 2 years may well have caused damage to Telstra's future growth prospects (ie: through reduced CAPEX commitments, etc).