Another opinion...
The AVB thread yesterday, was very revealing in the extreme… It appears allot of posters are traders not investors and appear easily swayed by the prevailing “sentiment”… AVB received some bad press for the wrong reasons...I understand some of the drilling logistics here, so to get the facts empirically correct I was briefly in contact with the company...I know quality mining/drilling staff when I come across them...AVB staff fall easily into this category...that is why, along with the quality of AVB’s global assets, I still remain very confident of the AGM’s 100mt assertion for PB...
Here’s why…
I knew there must be a definitive technical reason for hole 25 missing...perhaps stepping out on strike 100m was an audacious, but no doubt, a very logical assumption and based on geologically accurate interpretation...but unfortunately with this hole at least, a temporary set-back...most traders on the ASX have limited understanding of how exploration works...one bad result means let’s forget all the brilliant work that’s gone on before [i.e. 700k plus of CU equiv.], spit the dummy and head for the exit...the nominal SP goes down justifying their decision…etc etc
Saying that the hole 25 was too far south is a simple way to explain a complicated 3D in ground ore body structure…. The western and eastern zones do not sit in alignment at all...the offset between them is represented on the 5/12/2012 Announcement’s map with a single line as a FAULT LINE...an oversimplification of either an array of small faulting or ductile bending around and or some combination of the first 2...
The drilling methodology made an assumption based on the common PB structure which as we know now was incorrect at this particular drill site...Hole 25 now clearly shows that the rocks are now running North-South at this location and are bending around...So while hole 25 is easily described as being too far south, the rocks direction turns quickly from west to North...
You would have assumed even stepping out 100m you would have still hit the ore body...but if the rocks are N-S by the time you get to the depth where the ore body should be...the drill direction is now parallel to the ore body is passing by your left and simultaneously plunging… That means the drilling is in fact not only too far south, but now needs to turn left to follow the mineralised trend and drill at the correct angle to the true direction of the Eastern Ore body...Meaning...hole 25 was an expensive geological tutor at PB...
AVB’s strike rate in the last 20 odd holes has been “on the money” or put simply excellent...statistically sooner or later you get no result…notwithstanding that this information is then added to the regional geological interpretation... Meaning the hole 26 will have the NQ rig potentially turned into the structure at the correct azimuth and drill at the correct angle, then should potentially step out on strike conservatively with closer grid spacing until it joins the Eastern zone...
Nothing has changed from Hole 24 the ore zone is STILL definitively there...by “going to school” on hole 25; AVB will now have the “expensive opportunity” to know this structural western zone anomaly [i.e. azimuth, angulations’, plunge and 3D structure at depth]...By building a comparatively sound 3D view of PB the drilling will continue as normal at PB...as per announcement with 3 to 4 rigs...continuing to build the 1 million ton copper...proving 2 PB ore bodies connect via the 5000m regional drilling program along strike of PB...and being fully funded for the whole of 2013 program with 3 to 4 rigs...
Whoever said exploration was uncomplicated?...to say the least...traders never see past the last drill hole, which has never been more so, than in the current market conditions where shareholder support swings hot and cold…
Regardless, I still remain very confident of the AGM’s JORC potential for PB...
Dyor...
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