ive just left the club, page-8

i'm expecting HW3 to dissapoint and realising that there aren't many sp drivers in H1 2013, except maybe a tanzania farm-out.

well aware of the space we are working in here. i'm working on about 5-10% chance of success from here for their somaliland block and see things like tanzania as a bonus. nigeria is very important to their funding story and is a real dealbreaker if they have problems there. i'd rely on that income from production to help underpin their program going forward without dilution of share base.

for me its more about survival and minimal dilution until they get their free look in a couple years' time.

and don't get me wrong, forecasting a price 40-50% lower from here doesn't mean i don't like the company or story. its just a matter of timing. the risk i am running is that HW3 comes in ok and i get left behind...