Soho, Gareth Hatch has done quite a bit of work on this one and concludes smuggling accounts for less than 4000tpa, most likely higher value CREO.
Third last para:
http://www.techmetalsresearch.com/2012/08/the-final-chinese-rare-earth-export-quota-allocations-for-2012/
And more recently:
http://www.techmetalsresearch.com/2012/12/chinese-rare-earth-statistics-lost-in-translation/
wake up people, page-20
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