One nagging issue is whether GRR is receiving current rates for pellet prices, or are its prices delayed by 3 months? This is important because if delayed, then GRR's average pellet price in the next quarterly will still be suppressed by the earlier drop in IO prices. The short answer is: I think GRR gets near-current prices and its $128 average price in July-Sept quarter reflected prices during the worst of the downturn.
Here's more detail: GRR and Shagang previously calculated the pellet price from recent IO62 prices, which delayed the pellet price GRR received by 3 months (stated in GRR's FY11 ann rpt). In October 2012, GRR switched to the MBIO-PT index and back-dated its pricing to April (apparently no significant effect on revenue). This index provides spot pellet prices CFR in US$. GRR converts this index to FOB prices, which I presume would be about $7-$9/tonne lower because with FOB Shagang pays the shipping costs.
A review of the MBIOI-PT prices back to mid July when the index was first published online suggests that GRR's average $128 last quarter represented current pricing (i.e. represented the darkest days of IO prices). The MBIOI-PT index was about US $164 in early July, dropped to a low of $110 on 7 Sept, and two weeks later was back above $120.
GRR's quarterly will be coming out in a week or two, so we'll find out what revenue GRR actually received (and how well it has improved productivity). But its average pellet price should be a much healthier figure. The MBIOI-PT index rose from US$126 on 5 Oct to US$162 on 28 Dec -- remember to reduce these prices for US$ (3-5%) and FOB adjustment (possibly $7-$9/tonne).
FYI: the MBIOI-PT is currently (4 Jan) US$168.75. Also, the pellet index seems to lag the IO62 index by a week (i.e. should be higher this week).
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- GRR
- what should the sp be?
what should the sp be?, page-4
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 19 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add GRR (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
26.0¢ |
Change
0.010(4.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $298.0M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
25.5¢ | 26.5¢ | 25.5¢ | $215.7K | 833.4K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
23 | 259156 | 25.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
26.0¢ | 42089 | 11 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
20 | 241716 | 0.255 |
14 | 297766 | 0.250 |
12 | 356121 | 0.245 |
15 | 385308 | 0.240 |
7 | 262343 | 0.235 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.260 | 52982 | 13 |
0.265 | 124634 | 6 |
0.270 | 209074 | 4 |
0.275 | 212000 | 2 |
0.280 | 259500 | 7 |
Last trade - 15.03pm 07/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
LU7
Discover the strong preliminary feasibility of the Bécancour Lithium Refinery, showcasing resilience in a low pricing environment and a strategic plan to capitalize on future price recoveries
GRR (ASX) Chart |