AUL 0.00% 28.5¢ austar gold limited

what the year has in stall for mantle, page-7

  1. 2,403 Posts.
    Agree with the box-ticking no question. But I just can't understand how they can be perplexed with the SP movements.

    When the JVA was announced in July the price went from ~9c to ~15c.

    Then Fortrend was announced two weeks later.

    Then the JORC came in at less than expected (still great, mind you, but less than expected) with no details released about what was to come next. SP dumped the following day.

    Then another CR debacle. SP went down ~60% from when JVA was announced.

    Then CR was canned, drilling started at GC and we were leading up to Scoping Study results - so she rallied a bit from ~7c to ~12c.

    Then the drawdowns began.

    And then that nonsense Scoping Study announcement. Once again, no details about what was to come next. Basically said nothing will happen for 3 years (even though many of us knew that wasn't true - with more drilling, licences etc required). Google "ASX mining scoping study" and see how many 1 page press releases you find.

    And then the SP has been Citigroup's plaything ever since. They control the SP because they control supply. And there is no demand at the moment. Because you have to give retail investors a reason to buy at this point in time. Without that reason, controllers of supply have a field day.

    That's why the SP didn't rerate as a result of the JVA.

    I know this all sounds negative, but that's only because I'm responding to the claim of surprise at the state of the SP.

    As I said at the start, boxes have been ticked, projects are progressing, and kudos to management for that, no question. But there really can't be any surprise about the state of the SP.

    It now just comes down to your personal investment strategy. Buy low, sell high. Change your timeframes etc etc. But it's a good lesson in learning to take profits while they are on the table.
 
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