I believe in looking at the negatives of stocks, and welcome those who provide an alternate view point to mine. It provides a more balances investment decision.
Below is analaysis from an engineering company who has no vested interest in ML stocks (unlike brokers and the companies themselves). Its paints a much less rosey picture of the ML play. It part it does this by using a more realistic 20:1 gas:oil ratio for BOE (most presentations use 6:1), realistic oil and gas pricing, and failed wells instead of just successes.
Based of their analysis only about 30 % of ML wells are commercially viable. Those that are viable, are due to a combination or location and operator know how.
Interestingly Range is the 3rd most economic of the companies analysed and its average EUR (including failed wells if any) was easily in the economic range. Furthermore all the Range wells in this analysis were in the Tonkawa Field (AOK is drilling next door in the East Tonkawa Field).
Happy to be in AOK based on what I have read. Location and operator know how.
http://www.npc-eng.com/the-mississippi-lime-breaking-down-the-play-using-terrastatnpc-3/
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