We all know that oil was generated. If it is not migrated to anywhere, NSE&CoP will find. Then, you are right, NSE price wouldn't make a 100% rise overnight but might make very close to it; maybe around 60-80% overnight. then 300% in one month and 1000% in one year. That's the upside I mean.
See AUT's charts below. That's how they did it. (in US shales). I am not saying it will be the same, but see the upside and calculate the downside, and compare them. That's what mardo was saying. Downside is limited with maybe 30% decline but upside is 1000%. That's not gamble. That's a probability calculation.
Short term: on Sept.2009 (This chart can be seen as a small piece on the second graphic)
Long term chart;
NSE Price at posting:
27.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held