a mathematical question re: stockmarket

If a stock has trended up (for arguments sake lets say we can identify this trend) over a period of (x) days then for each period it continues to move in that direction is it .............

a) getting closer to reversing or is it

b) more certain of moving in that same direction for at least a % of the total period.

An example:

Compare two stocks:

Stock A has trended up for 6 months.
Stock B has trended up for 12 months.

Q1) Which stock is closer to reversing?

Q2) Which stock is more likely to continue trending up?

Q3) Which stock is more likely to trend up for two more weeks?





I've spent a fair bit of time looking at this and would be interested in others' opinions. I'll provide mine a little later (with some general example) if it seems to be of any interest to anyone. It's not earth shattering stuff, not self defeating as I believe most T/A is, and is of no advantage or disadvantage to me. Just might be helpful.


cheers