crossroads, page-50

US Markets are quite strong. I have shorting the guts out of the DJIA on any anticipated weak reports or component earnings and fortunately have been quite lucky closing each time just before it moved up again. It's a bit like fighting gravity but I believe we will see a pullback in the not too distance future. The jobs report on Friday in the US is the big event that will allow the current rally to continue, pause or fail. Given the economic reports I have looked at and earnings I have analysed from DJIA components, I think the market may see a pause after the number comes out before resuming it's rise in early Feb. Although there is excessive optimism, generally the data favours the bulls. The consensus is for 138,000 to 210,000. A number at 150,000 means a pause - above (160+) and it's steady as she goes.

So what's the point of all this waffle? Well, WPL will benefit further from this gravitational shift up as oil goes up and investors pile into dividend stocks. I see $38 just prior to going ex-div with limited downside after if the market holds its pattern. There might be a minor pullback in March (beware the ides of March) and a more significant one come May.

The oil price tends to peak somewhere between May and August too. Something else to watch.