Obviously it depends on whether you're a JBL shareholder or PLA shareholder.
I'm always thought that JBL needs PLA more than PLA needs JBL, however PLA is over a barrel! I'm sure is the industry was in better shape then we would have had a more competitive biding process for our assets.
The process should be fair to all, and I'm also guessing that no one would like to see Macquarie Bank end up with a large slice of JBL post merger - we'd be much better off with a long term partner (the Chinese?). All shareholders will get a vote on the merger, so if it's not fair then it might not happen!
I'm going to stick my neck out and say that I'm inclined to think that the ratio will be closer to 2.75:1 in favour of Jubilee. Therefore ~184m shares issued to current holders. Could be more, could be less. We should know in less than 24hrs.
In addition I assume that 40% of Macquarie's ~$25m Debt ($10m) will be converted at say 12p per share into ~55m JBL shares. The other $15m will then become project debt (Smokey).
The total number of JBL shares after merger (345m + 184m + 55m) = 584m
Market Cap @ 12p = 70m pounds (~AUD $105m)
-- Re-rating of JBL post PLA merger:
I'm guessing the share price is going to start heading north...
As you can see from page 26 of a Wesizwe Platinum presentation (link below), Jubilee is considered a Tier 3 Producer, while Platinum Australia (was) considered a Tier 2 Producer. So combined, the JBL SP should get some uplift on the re-rating of the stock (hopefully good for all).
Tjate is an Elephant resource, however it will cost a huge amount to develop. Costs are ever rising, so a hefty discount should be applied (hopefully the Chinese will help us develop - like what has happened at Wesizwe).
All of PLA's projects are shallow near term prospects.
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Trading of our PLA shares still some way off (May earliest). With any luck the JBL share price will continue heading north on the back of higher PGM prices and the re-rating of the merged company (and the story).
So with any luck we could be in a better position by then. Maybe shareholders may even cop a 50% discount against any capital gains, given most will have held for over a year!
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Here's hoping (but not assuming) PLA holders are about to get some positive news (finally).
gus
PLA Price at posting:
6.7¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
