re: a mathematical question stockmarket
Mathematically, you cant draw any conclusions, as you cant predict the future, per se.
Statistically, you can chart how far outside standard deviation the move is with volatility indicators, but you need to believe (have a VIEW of whether that move is more likely to continue, or more likely to reverse) in order to trade. Traditionally, this reflects your interpretation of chart patterns and technical indicators. As soon as you see how many opinions there are of the same chart pattern, you realise that you are NOT trading mathematically, but you are trading your opinion, and using maths /TA to JUSTIFY your opinion, after the fact.
Having said that, there is no better answer to the holy grail, just different trading systems apart from TA. I do use some TA when trading, but I keep it simple. I like trendline analysis. Ive studied almost every commercial trading system software there is, and none of them do what they claim.The only thing that does work consistantly. is the markets makers private software, that just trades derivatives against the underlying stock as they sell.None of us are cashed up enough for that tho.
