insider trader-stock pick of the week - 06feb, page-37

Nihilism,
I really don't know how to respond - you want the company not to maximise NPV and you are happy that they use your money to create value which isn't monetary? With views like that I'm not surprised it's so overvalued.
I'm not sure how to respond to your point that I have an opinion. Investing in small caps (and large caps for that matter) is about taking a view based on uncertain outcomes, then putting ones chips on the table.
To address your pint about how I would have opined had the Het flowed at 50 - 100 bopd, I don't think you understand my point. Management has a limite pool of funds to employ on the assets. Surely the best risk reward is to produce the P90 reserves, then P50 (much of which becomes P90 when the P90 reserves come in, which they haven't) and then when the low hanging fruit has been picked, use the pile of cash generated to drill exploration wells.
Please let me know which 'facts' you are relying on to form your view, and don't say the reserves which are an opinion.
Here are a few facts:
1. The prospectus stated that the initial $10m raising would make the drilling fully funded by cash flow within 7 months, which didn't happen. The company since raised 7 times that amount of capital.
2. The brokers, using type curve and drilling schedule assumptions provided by the company, forecast production would by now be in the thousands of barrels per day, which hasn't happened.
3. The 'fairway' wells were supposed to come on at 50+ bopd according to the reserve report in the prospectus, which hasn't happened.
4. A huge percentage of the 'Proved' well locations are uneconomic and are consistently being plugged and abandoned.
5. The company's R/P ratio is many many multiples of any identifiable analogous company.