I never looked at last week's report in detail, just took the figures at face value and as I was saying at the weekend, I should have known better.
Last weeks report states the results are for 22 days. Thus when I saw today's announcement I subtracted one from the other to get the performance over the last 8 days to get an idea of how well production is actually holding up.
The differences between the numbers are 900 BO, 869 MCF of gas and 596 barrels of water.
When you divide by 8 oil production over the period only averaged 112.5 BOPD, which would indicate that production is dropping quite fast and is now in reality likely to be below 100 BOPD.
Gas production on the other hand remains relatively stable and water production is declining fast.
However when you look at last weeks numbers and do the math's 3,711 BO divided by 22 doesn't give an average of 161. Its average is 168.68 :( :(
If you divide 3,711 by 23 you get 161 as the average, the same can be said for both the gas and water averages to.
Now you might say its only 1 day, but that 1 day makes a considerable difference to the numbers, because if the original data is for 23 days then the 900 BO needs to be divided by 7 not 8 which works out at 128.5 BOPD rather than 112.5 BOPD, which is a significant difference. It also means production has dropped off much less quickly.
However we don't know which is right and which is wrong and until we do you could be making a very serious error by guessing wrongly.
So yet again Antares shoot themselves in the foot with an incorrect announcement, which does nothing to regain investor confidence in the company.
As to the pump size, on the figures given even if the data only relates to the last 7 days, liquid production averaged only 214 barrels a day, well below the 250 barrel pump capacity.
:( :( :( :( :(
LOTM
AZZ Price at posting:
57.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
