rum offer v fair value

RUM t/o offer
should we call it their first t/o offer?

very opportunistic
but hey why wouldn't RUM give it a crack and test the waters?
if they pull it off, what a deal … for RUM

the t/o offer implies a value of approx $12.7M for CEN or (in effect) 2.15c per CEN share
(see 13 Feb 2013 ann)

what does CEN have (main project):

Arganara phosphate project (100% CEN)

"* Soil Geochemistry potentially extends mineralised phosphate corridor to south
* Arganara Inferred Resource of 310Mt @ 15% Phosphate P2O5 (10% cutoff)
* Approximately 30% of holes drilled at Arganara gave intersections of potential DSO grade"

"With further infill drilling across the Resource, NuPower believes the high grade DSO component (+30% P2O5) of the Resource has the potential to be expanded."

(see quarterly report (31 Jan 2012) for the period ending 31 Dec 2012)

what would be fair value for a project of this size and potential?

at 3c/share we get a market cap of about $17.7M
at 4c/share we get a market cap of about $23.6M
at 5c/share we get a market cap of about $29.5M

would this be fair value or is it still cheap? thoughts?

who else might be having a look at CEN?

"In November, the Company participated in a promotional trip to China arranged by the Northern Territory Department of Mines and Energy.

During the visit, NuPower held meetings with a number of significant Chinese mining and investment groups who have shown interest in the Companys wholly-owned Arganara project. Recent discoveries in the Georgina Basin, including Arganara, are establishing the area as a globally significant underdeveloped phosphate province (Figure 1). Such discoveries have gained the attention of a number of Chinese state and private groups who are very aware of the Chinese food security strategy’s dependence on the availability of phosphate based fertilizers, to ensure future food production targets are achievable."

(see quarterly report (31 Jan 2012) for the period ending 31 Dec 2012)

"… a number of significant Chinese mining and investment groups who have shown interest .." in CEN's phosphate project.

mmmn, interesting

some have sold since the ann at 2c and today at 2.1c

i think i'll hold and wait to see how this develops …

good luck all