first feed to kiln was 30 nov 2012

Lynas announced first feed to kiln on the 30 Nov 2012. To quote the ASX statement from that day "Lynas anticipates a ramp-up period of three to four months until first commercial sales and subsequent cash generation".

So lets discuss what is on everyones mind, but no ramper is willing to talk about. When does Lynas come to the market and say things are not going according to plan?

Remember given SMSL/court activities/delays, this company had more than enough time to prepare for the arrival of material for processing. On the 30th Nov 2012 they gave a statement saying 3-4 months to commercial sales and cash generation. However here we are nearly 3 months later and they have actually not produced any finished product yet, let alone anything resembling commercial product.

As I have said previously some of this might be because the Malaysian regulators are forcing them to take a slow and cautious ramp up (however again why does the company not communicate this). Although the most likely scenario is that Lynas has once again over promised and under delivered. Amazing that investors continue to believe the communication from this company.

Per the rules for investing in Lynas, take their time lines and double them and then double them again. So 3-4 months = 12-16 months to commercial sales. Based on their current run rate this projection is not looking that unlikely.