LYC 0.50% $6.02 lynas rare earths limited

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  1. 19,584 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 4970
    OMG,

    1/ Is the RE story still intact? Probably, but demand destruction, in Ce particularly (50% production), is going to make it a lot tougher, but almost impossible for competition. Chinese disruption has clearly created a delay in returns 12 - 24 months.
    2/ Lynas is IMO clearly the best positioned ROW RE producer by a long margin, if they don't make it nobody will for the next 3/4 years.
    3/ Like me you have two options, to buy on a new low or to buy on a clear break to the upside. To buy more on a low adds to your gamble but obviously averages down. To buy on the up gives you the opportunity to introduce new disciple with tight stops on the fresh purchases and the possibility of leveraging your current equity + $30K to say $100K BUT with tight stops. That would need a break of 73c and probably a retest but there's some great free commentary here from Mitta, Funky, WW, and others.
    4/ When it gets personal it's a joint decision, your partner in life to be needs to be part of the decision process. I chunked a chunk of my wife's final super into Lynas circa 90c but she understands the RR. Dinner with Gareth Hatch in HK was also useful, lol.

    Personally I think there is a very high chance of either a new lower trading range or a <50c intra day spike. I've parked funds to buy 500k+ in the low 40's, add to the punt. Failing that I'll use some cash + leverage to add a similar number once an upside is established, BUT with far more discipline than I exercised on the way down. I'm averaged in circa 90c so looks ugly on paper but when, and if, Lynas decides to run this could get gobbled up in a couple of days but it is not going to happen soon. You've done the research, your close to the industry, you know the advantages Lynas holds so your in a better position than most.

    Maybe relax, get married and enjoy, then leverage the upside when it happens. Lucky bugger, wish I had those decisions to make all over again! You've got my gmail.




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$6.02
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