paterson's latest lyc report, page-38

Thanks FastSell, an interesting read.
Here are my thought/quibbles on the details.
Includes a debt of $400m and I'm not aware of other big liabilities. They're using 2.04bn shares issued which I think covers dilution from Mt Kellett & cap raising.
Rather optomistic on basket price ($45/kg) and COP ($10/kg) but not over the top. Medium term $35 and $15 might be more realistic giving profit around 55% of their projections.
They expect a 50% drop in Dy prices and 100% increase in La; I'd have thought the other way round was more likely.
They seem to be predicting a slow ramp up with FY14 production @ phase 1 capacity only. Didn't NC say that phase 2 ramp up would be complete by the end of this FY? Maybe they expect underproduction initially through lack of demand.

As for the Mt Weld valuation of $4.5 bn.
I agree LAMP and concentrators must be included.
What's the 'raw' value of the REEs?
1.4 bn kg reserves x $20/kg profit gives round $28 bn but of course that's over 20 years....