LYC 2.86% $6.11 lynas rare earths limited

paterson's latest lyc report, page-55

  1. 1,105 Posts.
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    Just testing if someone care to check my calc.
    LYC is not so rosy....

    ------------------ 4t c - JPM - Patts
    2015 NPAT ==== $257m $216m $578m
    PE10 SP Gain == 2x = 1.7x = 4.3x in 2.5 years.
    PE10 SP ====== $1.17 $1.00 $2.60

    Annual 10% return = 2x in 7.5 years

    Therefore if I invest in 2 similiar companies, the same $ amount, 1 can go bust. The after tax return is still better than the opportunity /cost of capital of 10% with growth in 2016 and later.

    Why is the market pricing LYC at such high risk ???
    Or the market read the 4-traders consensus as rubbish ???
    I think the market have to re price LYC very soon - b4 April, June, August 2013 ???
    -SP jumps at every milestone.

 
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