I think you made that very clear all along Crackpot ,you had realistic expectations.
My beef was with the mob who incessantly ramped and wouldn't hear a nary word and then later say ,oh well ,that's the way it goes ,bad luck ,lol.
I don't think your strategy was wrong ,it was just the wrong pick in this case ,as you say a coin flip .I've ridden stocks up many times very successfully ,and come a cropper a few too .In hindsight you could see problems emerging on this one .They seemed to lose control about the time her ladyship started offloading.