size of jpr's discoveries

Following up on a point I made last week, there’s perhaps something a bit curious about JPR’s indications regarding the amount of resources tested by each new well. So far, they’ve basically stuck to the line that each well tests up to 10mmbo recoverable, whether at Akkar East or in the extension. Given the c37mmbo indicated under the GOST classification for the 4 wells (J50-53) at Akkar East, that figure sounds about right. The results for these 4 wells consist of reported net pay in the mid-Triassic (T2B) reservoir (typically in the range of 50-60m of net pay).

However, if we look at slide 9 of the OilBarrel investor pres and consider also the results of J55-59 in the extension, we see significantly increased amounts of total net pay being reported. The T2B reservoir depths appear similar to those at Akkar East, but we’re also told that the wells in the extension contain net pay of 40+m in the upper-Triassic reservoir (T2A). Looking at slide 9, these sands appear significantly thicker in the extension than at Akkar East, and this appears also the case for the Z sands in the extension. If these sands are commercially productive, as JPR seems of late to be suggesting, then I’m unsure as to how the wells in the extension might only each be testing the equivalent c10mmbo recoverable indicated for the wells at Akkar East. Taken at face value, surely the wells in the extension would appear to each have potential for greater than the 10mmbo figure when one factors in the additional net pay in the T2A and Z sands?

It might also be worth noting that the step-outs of the wells in the extension appear greater than those at Akkar East. Both J58 and J59 are located at 3.8km intervals from the previous well. This distance is evidently greater than the step-outs between J50-53. The greater depths of net pay and also the greater distances between the wells on the extension suggest to me the possibility that the structure in the extension may be a good bit larger than the structure at Akkar East. Whilst it’s perhaps wise to refrain from reading too much into this speculation even if correct, it’s at least interesting to consider the possibility that JPR might at this stage be quietly underplaying the scale of their overall discoveries.