Mah,
I have a theory and its not proven as yet but will be proven ONCE Lynas announces their profits from the deals signed.
I believe the Japanese the main customers of the REEs DO NOT want to do deal with China due currents issues (eg Senkaku/Diaoyu etc). They simply stop buying from China in retaliation against China who themselves has started boycotting Japanese products. Japan is pretty much consuming their own stockpiles and wait for new supplier to come online etc Lynas.
The price of REE that is shown on Lynas Homepage is sourced from CHina Suppliers hence does not reflect market reality and is not the true price of supply and demand. Notice how Lynas REE price has been stuck for like 1 month or so at $37.50. If REEs are freely traded like the oil and gold futures market its should be flucuating all the time.
If Lynas can secure contracts for all phase 1 and phase 2 it will confirm my theory 1) and once Lynas announces profits that beat Analyst expectation will confirm my theory again.
Time will tell
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