PRX 0.00% 0.3¢ prodigy gold nl

how to trade gaps, page-6

  1. 13,807 Posts.
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    Dingo, I believe ABU has been and continues to get its act together.
    They have done everything any shareholder could ask, building a high grade resource, demonstrating its viability, and moving towards production all in an amazingly short period of time and fortunately it will be at very low capital cost.

    Expanding a little further on those 2 charts and the comparison to 1970-80. In 1970-1975 gold ran from $35 to $200. It then had a big correction, halving to $100. Feels similar to 2000-2011 only this time it took longer and was much less volatile rising more gradually and steadily. The correction has also been less volatile and has also taken longer.
    Then in 1976-1980 gold had an even greater move rising from $100-$800.

    If gold now does anything even remotely close to what it did in 1976-1980 on that second up leg, ABU won’t even need to get its act together and it won't matter what gold stock you own.
    It will be 2009-2011 all over again- only much bigger.
    Some of the worst performers would do extremely well as they go from companies that no one wants to fund and currently (seem) to have no hope of ever producing, to companies that everyone wants to fund through placements and debt. Some will be 20-50 baggers because of how beaten down they are now.

    However I always think it's best to be in a gold stock with a quality deposit (high grade, very low cost and either producing or funded to production), and enough happening (in this case development and exploration) to lift the sp without the need for a higher POG.
    If you don't get gold rising you should still do well with time.
    If gold does run hard, do not think we haven't got plenty of leverage as well. Buccaneer gives us millions of ounces of leverage (not currently priced in) to higher POG while OP gives us the floor under our sp as well as development and exploration upside.
    If gold runs rapidly to say $2,400 and holds (forget the 1980 type of move), then early cash flow from OP would easily fund a large scale bulk mine for Buccaneer and we will have two mines.
    The 1976-1980 move was the equivalent of $1,525-$12,000. Even after that move corrected, the POG settled at around $400 which was still up by a factor of four- equivalent to around $6,000 now.
    I’m not looking for anything like an exact repeat but it’s worth looking back to get some perspective of what is possible and a reminder that even a strong correction as in 1976 does not spell the end of a bull market.
    Less volatility in this correction is probably a result of developing nation central bank buying so I am not holding my breath for a 50% correction in gold this time.
 
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