Fully agree that it's doubtful Exxaro would bother with a low ball bid. Like you said, top 20 own 80% and many of the substantial holders have been buying well above $1.30. The last placement was at $3 wasn't it? These substantial holders (M&G and Blackrock) have the clout to help with CAPEX costs to get into production either via equity or helping to organise debt, so there's no way a low ball bid would succeed when production is a very viable option. Very confident that we won't see an SDL repeat here, because EQX has the very real option of getting to production itself because of the much lower CAPEX.
I doubt Mayoko will be sold unless a very good offer comes through. As for Badondo, yes it looks like the plan is to drill it out to see what's there before deciding what to do with it. If Badondo is anything like Nabeba/Mbalam (SDL), we could be looking at 100-200mt 60%+Fe DSO and 1bt+ itabirite. The key up north is of course infrastructure. The company has the option of drilling out and selling Badondo once the full potential is known, or developing Badondo with Mayoko free cash flows. This is some time down the track though. SP value drivers will be those involving Mayoko at the minute I think.
SP in the dumps at the minute but it's exciting times to see how the Scoping Study comes out and whether there is any news on an Exxaro infrastructure JV or some other plan to fund the Mayoko CAPEX.
EQX Price at posting:
$1.29 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)