for those of you waiting for a short squeeze, page-82

The GE13 is not a risk for LYC because the likelihood of BN not retaining the Federal govt and Pahang state govt are almost zero.

Najib is confident of regaining support from voters, with several BN officials predicting the coalition can win up to 145 seats, nine more than it currently holds."

BN has always been comfortable winning 2/3 majority until Anwar form PKR which is a breakup of UMNO, the main component of BN. Other components of BN are MCA and Gerakan (both Chinese parties), MIC (Indian) and East Malaysia parties.

It is impossible for PKR to form govt, as PKR, like UMNO, is a Malay party. PKR therefore formed an alliance with PAS (Muslim fundamentalist party) and DAP (a large democratic /socialist party of mainly non Malay)

The three parties have conflicting manifesto - PAS wanted Malaysia to be a Muslim nation and adopt Muslim laws like Saudi, Iran or similiar Middle East nations. DAP wanted rights for non muslims and socialist welfare. PKR just want power and rule like UMNO.
The alliance also need the East Malaysian Parties to form govt. but being non muslim fundamentalist malay and a large non muslim popn component, will not join the disunited alliance.

The majority of voters that vote for the PKR, PAS & DAP alliance just wanted a strong opposition in parliament to check the govt, be a voice of the minorities and show their dissatisfaction but knew the alliance is not a realistic alternative /workable govt. Moreover, they do not want unrest and if UMNO were to lose govt or even many more seats, when there will certainly be riots.

Many PKR MPs and members defected back to UMNO before and after the elections as they were offered incentive to do so and do not have confidence in the disunited and conflicting alliance.
Anwar who was the former Deputy PM will appoint former UMNO ministers and if they form govt and will be like UMNO.
Voters dissatisfied with UMNO do not want a weak govt that run like UMNO.

The PM Razak is from Pahang (where Lynas is situated) and Pahang state has always been strong support for UMNO. And there are many seats that UMNO can retain without contest in GE13 as there are no other candidates. Support for PAS is only in the northern part of West Malaysia. Support for Anwar is only in some parts of north & central West Malaysia.

Therefore BN will definately win. It is expected and well accepted knowledge of Malaysians. If BN lose govt it will be the election upset never seen in 55 years since independence.
No one in Malaysia is prepared or able to fathom.

Why LYC investors are so blurr on the GE13 expected outcome?

***** GE13 is not going to result in a change of govt and therefore is just noise and never an issue for LYC. *****