dear moderator - re malaysian elections, page-11

ok, back home.. kids in bed, wife having a shower .. Mrs OM, I will try to respond to your post, although you might not like my resonses.

Truth is, while I actually agree with most of your questions & comments, very few of them matter if the opposition manages to convince voters to vote for them despite these questions.. this is politics, not science... facts truth play little part in the game.

Sorry, but it's going to be a long post, but I do want to answer all of your questions as I have thought the same things.

I will just type my response inside < > brackets if that's ok.
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Mrs OM's post..

Rastus?

Since you are so concerned about LYC and you appear to be wanting to discuss an Opposition Win, what disasterous predictions do you have for us long term holders, even our ever present parasists living off our long term suffering?

< ok... best case scenareo if BN lose ...

if Opposition party wins, they just ignore the antilynas movement and don't even pretend to follow through with their claims to 'halt the lamp while they review'.
SP will be hit hard initially, but rise back up when it becomes obvious a review is not going to happen.

Personally, I doube this will happen..


worst case scenareo... ok, you asked for it.. my nightmare scenareo is..

opposiiton wins and follows through ... informs Lynas that they must halt operations until the review is complete... lynas complains it will damage revenue but is over ruled on a matter of 'public safety'... opposition then proceeds to take it's sweet time setting up a commitee, and requesting all documents from Lynas, AELB, MOSTI, Enviroment protection Agency etc etc... they then spend a long time reading these and looking for any 'irregularities'..

in the mean time, lynas share price collapses... any revenue stream is frozen and lynas is stuck fighting a legal battle against a hostile government who is looking for a fight to appear champions for their people.

If you go through enough documents in any process, you can find technical reasons to question more... to dig deeper. every day/week this goes on, lynas sp gets smashed. In the mean time, lynas must continue to pay it's staff who are unable to work... it must consider funding a court battle which could drag on for weeks/months. It may even need to do another CR which will be difficult considering the circumstances.

I pray this does not happen.

Middle scenareo... opposition win and go through the motions of a review.. they 'halt' the lamp, or at least threaten to, but then reconsider it.

SP takes an initial hit with opposition win, then another minor one as 'halt' is mooted... but recovers somewhat if operations are allowed to continue..

Then it's a slow grind downwards for as long as the review takes... it's no good having a money earner if there is doubt on it's ability to continue operations..




>




Pray do sir tell us, no spill us your frantic worries and how we must seriously take note of an opposition win?
1. Pray tell us which seats you now see as going to fall to the Oppostions? There will need to be at least 14 Seats for them to get 50% of the vote.






2. What are the Oppositions Policies that are going to get right minded Malays to vote in the droves for the Opposition parties?

< what is a 'right minded' malay ? What is a right minded Australian ? Truth is when considering politics, all you need are enough Malay's to feel that they could do better or that they need to give the current government a bit of a bloody nose to cause a shock outcome. The way that most opposition parties do that is by offering this large middle ground of voters things that they want to hear... the ability of an opposition to deliver is another matter. The opposition party has mand many policy offerings to appeal to the middle ground... just have a read of their manifesto to get a tase of how much they are offering. Sure, they may never be able to deliver it, but they don't need to deliver it... they just need to convince enough people they will get their own particular policy looked at. >




3. How are these right minded thinking Malays going to benifit from loosing their jobs under an Opposition lead Govt with fanatical watermelon NGO’s running around and demanding this and that for their continued support?






4. What is going to keep the Oppostion if it forms Govt together. Remember they have no experience in holding Govt, expect for a few defectors from BN?




5. What Policies do they have that will bring Malaysia out of its already rapidly developing Economic state?





6. How are they going to fund their electoral promises, when they are not from what I read foriegn investor friendly?

< Once again, these are valid questions, but not really going to change things for us if the opposition wins. The opposition has not aimed serious critism towards many industries, just some select ones... foreign investment will be no more afraid than it was in Australia with MRRT, or the Tassie pulp mill, or the mega fishing trawler... >


7. How is PAS going to enforce its Fundementalist approach on the infidel population by demanding the introduction ‘Sharia Law’, especially in the Indian (Hindu) and Buddhist, Christian and tribal cultures?

But really what I would like you to do since you are so concerned about GE13 is to tell me why you think the Opposition is going to win?


< I think you missunderstand my position... it is not that I think they will win... it is that I think people here are blind to the possibility that they will win... I keep reading that there is 'zero' chance of the opposition winnings... or '95% likely that the curent gov will win'... what do these experts base their confidence on and use to support their expert claims ? historic wins and many government controlled websites. I have seen just as many 'NGO' websites/blogs that claim the opposite will happen... yet I do not try to say that I am confident the opposition will win.

I am not saying that I am confident the opposition will win... but I am saying anyone who claims there is zero or even 5% chance of them winning is basically talking out of their bum
>


We had a state election in WA on the weekend. I put down the win to, well if it works, why change it to something that you have no idea will improve things. Btw most of the former Labor Members that were Ministers have disappeared, so they will have to start a fresh. Basically, Labor did not have the policies that people wanted.


< very valid point, and this is exactly what many 'experts' are claiming will carry the BN over the line... the problem is that many malaysian's do not feel that everything is going well... many of these people are very well organized, well networked, IT savy, MultiMedia savy, and well educated... I have met them, talked to them and must say that I do not disagree with some of what they say with regards to corruption of the current government.

I 100% disagree with their claims about Lynas being unsafe, however there are enough other issues for their numbers to not be the insignificant % that many claim here.

>


So Rastus?, where are the Policies that Opposition have ready that are going to swing 14 more seats over to them before they can at least form Govt?


< The opposition are throwing every bone they can think of to the voters... offering a better life, offering a greener Malaysia, offering a corrupt free Malaysia, offering forgivness to the police and others who supported the BN gov. in it's years... basically, the oppositions entire set of policies are aimed at giving everyone everything they desire... all rubbish naturally, but I have found people are sometimes happy to swallow lies when they are in the mood >


Additional post from Mrs OM:

Rastus?

So in relation to LYC, how are the Policies going to dramatically affect LYC?

You want to disucss this, so go ahead tell us, so we can study your concerns.

I personally don't believe the Opposition will win enough seats if it was in a winning position, and I do not believe it is, but if it were, tell me your concerns.

< Good question... and one that no one can answer... yet.

Basically, step back consider how things would look for, say, Santos if the Australian opposition had gone to the election on the back of supporting many public protests and marches against Santos and with a with a policy to halt all Santos operations until they had reviewed the whole process of Santo's operations, safety, applications to operate etc etc... now pretend that the current Australia government had been in power for decades and well known for corruption so most Australian's suspected that the way to get business done in Australia was through bribes etc...

Do you not think that Santo's SP would be vulnerable leading up to the election here ?

Do you not think that if the opposition won, Santos SP would be smashed straight away ?


Fear and Greed drive the share price... right now we have a tension between them... the election offeres real fear.

What can the opposiiton do in power ? well delay for a start... they can (and will probably) use the public safety trigger to order operations @ the LAMP halt. Sure, it might harm the SP, or even cripple the company, but public safety must come first will be their mantra.

Then they will start to pick at the corners of the entire process of the application, granting to build, construction details and issues, government support, EIA, etc etc etc... and when they find a tiny little thread of doubt... they will keep pulling until they can delay even more.

*If* (Fuziah and the opposition party) they had not invested so much time and effort towards their stance against Lynas, I would be less concerned... however, as I mentioned in a post ages ago, the opposition has painted itself into a corner. It has invested a number of years of opposition to the LAMP, to the process of government that granted the construction and aproved it's standard, to the awarding of the TOL.

To find nothing wrong with the entire process would be a complete embarrasment to the opposition... it would basically be saying to the world that they were wrong for a number of years and that the BN were right. This is not tollerable in politics. Something will have to be found to highlight how right they were to spend so long complaining on the issue of the LAMP.

Sadly, with the level of corruption in the BN government, it is quite likely they will be able to find something... even with Lynas 100% safe, it is quite likely that a new government will uncover one technical reason to keep the LAMP halted.

They do not need to shut the lamp forever... they just need to shut it long enough to justify all of their expressed concern... and, perhaps, long enough to make the company squirm.

Tell me... how do you expect that to pan out for the SP ?

Personally, I would be sick with worry if the opposition wins... I have never shorted Lynas and hoped to never do so... although for the first time I would like some insurance... since no-one is willing to take me up on my 100:1 bet, I might have to ask around for how much I need to invest in shorts to cover my losses if the sp crashes... I honestly don't know if our SMSF can buy shorts as I am not a fan of them.