PREMIER Jay Weatherill is headed for a crushing defeat at next year's state election as an exclusive Advertiser poll shows a huge leap in Liberal support since the party changed leaders.
The telephone poll of 412 people, conducted last night, shows the Liberals leading 59-41 state-wide on a two-party preferred basis.
Critically, the Liberals are now ahead 56-44 in metropolitan Adelaide, where the election will be won.
If the 7 per cent state-wide swing recorded in the poll was repeated at next year's March election, Labor would lose 11 seats, reducing it to just 15 MPs in the Lower House.
The swing would even place the Labor heartland seat of Lee, based around Semaphore, in doubt.
The poll was taken to coincide with the milestone tomorrow of a year until the next state election - Saturday, March 15, 2014.
Advertiser polls are keenly watched in political circles and have a strong record of accurately forecasting voter intent. It is the only published poll to provide the critical metropolitan Adelaide voter breakdown.
The poll, statistically weighted by age, area and gender to match population statistics for the state, has a maximum margin of error of 4.8 percentage points.
It shows Labor's primary support sliding three points since an August Advertiser poll, to 30 per cent.
The Liberals' primary support has risen a remarkable nine points in that time, to 54 per cent. In early February, Steven Marshall replaced Isobel Redmond as Liberal leader.
The bulk of the Liberals' increased support has come from voters who previously intended to vote for the Greens or other minor parties, indicating anti-Labor sentiment is now converting to Liberal backing.
Support for the Greens has declined from 8 to 6 per cent since last August's poll and backing for Independent or other has dropped from 9 to 6 per cent.
On the eve of a debate between the two leaders to be live-streamed on adelaidenow from 12.50pm tomorrow, Mr Weatherill maintains a slim 36-33 lead over Mr Marshall as preferred premier.
Thirty-one per cent of voters are unsure about who would best run the state.
The Opposition has leaped ahead of the State Government in voters' minds as the best economic manager.
Forty-two per cent of voters believe the Liberals have a better plan, 24 per cent prefer Labor's vision.
Forty-nine per cent of voters believe Mr Marshall is doing a good or fair job as leader.
Seventy-two per cent believe Mr Weatherill is doing a good or fair job as Premier.
