Media / talking heads are talking down IO prices, so we need to work on the basis of $120/t.
Secondly AGO compounded by Schroder's manic exit.
Thus far any rise in SP has not held due to Schroder's hitting the sell button.
Today is a clear sign that they want out.
Last close 1.26, open 1.22, low 1.215, then the SP looked to recover closed the gap down open at 1.26, then sells re-emerged from that point. Ebbs and flows will continue and the SP will find new lows as a result.
Pain levels will be tested, imo my opinion AGO value is around $1.60: based on 12mtpa, $120/t, AUD 1.04, PE of 6, current cost / depreciation, I am excluding current cash.
At $110/t and the same metrics as above SP = $1.26
AGO Price at posting:
$1.25 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held