I'm taking a pretty simple approach to all this.
To make this CR successful, you would expect a significant announcement between the cut off and issuing of the new shares.
Those 'traders' would have left between the CR announcement and cut off date, allowing the long termers to acquire more at a low price. A rise in price post material announcement would make the CR price of 1.5c more attractive which would benefit long termers who now have more shares and options.
On the flipside,if there was a material announcement, there would be little excess for the underwriter as most would take up their allocation. They may not care as they are still making something out of the deal.
From a SH perspective, If there is no material announcement, this whole thing has been a sham.
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