I know where the ramping is coming from on this thread and it's not from BobbyKennedy.
IGV is worthless as a metric for computing the value of a resource. I can point you to coal companies with IGVs of $250B, and market caps of less than $10M - and even then I think they are overvalued.
CTP's margin is likely to be around $30-50/bbl and when you take into account admin, finance costs, the drilling of more wells, apply a discount factor, and then risk it all, around $15-20/bbl is probably a reasonable valuation - although I'd apply it to the 2P figure, not the 1P.
So say $20/bbl for 1.1 MMbbls = $22M.
But regardless of the valuation metric you choose, the point is, this was totally expected. The pleasant surprise (pardon the pun) for me was the assigning of 6MMbbls to 2C rather than 3C or Prospective Resource. That 2C resource has the potential to move to 2P pretty easily, with a few extra wells, and then you're looking at more like $140M valuation for Surprise as a whole.
CTP Price at posting:
70.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
