update, page-31

Regarding the Morningstar article - good article, but quite general and vague though.

1. Yes, the moat exist - but why?
QBE has 11 year of positive underwriting profit. I can't help but asking WHY?

With no shortage of dumber insurance companies out there, what stops people from selling unprofitable insurance under QBE price? What does QBE do that is so special that other companies can't replicate? Is it the brand name? Is it the extensive distribution /sales network? Is it 200 IQ actuarial magicians making incredible statistic calculations?

Perhaps I shouldn't be checking gift horse in the mouth - but I'm curious.

2. "But Ellis cautions that investor in QBE has to be a "believer", given that positive conditions can quickly turn negative.

I hope he's referring to catastrophe events instead of unexpected accounting error :)

A gambler toss a coin 49 times and it turn out tail, people start betting head thinking that it will turn out head next because "it is due". Gambler's Fallacy.

An insurance company facing a few years of bad catastrophe, people expect this year to be great year free of cats because "it is due". Not true.

The only thing that we can expect is that in the LONG TERM, the catastrophe rate will return to the mean, whatever the mean if global warming is true.