china has no choice but complete t.o, page-36

The wait won't be for much longer.

Likely outcome: HanLong requests a few more weeks to finalize a partnership arrangement with the State Enterprises (otherwise known as preparing a war chest to defend the acquisition against counter-bids). Actually they don't need anymore time and it's all for show.

The billion dollar question is whether China will take the risk by putting the same 45c deal on the table (certainly will be trumped by anyone investing in the West African IO province with a 20 year strategic horizon where the acquisition price is merely a small upfront cost (even at 60c a pop is a steal).

Will the Chinese using the SoE cover reinstate the 57cents to lessen the risk of a superior counter or at least setting the floor high enough that any counter-counter measures would be limited.

Less likely outcome: Sundance terminates HanLong SIA (HL is out of the picture for good). The CDB confiscates HanLong's shares (which rightfully was bought with CDB money belonging to the state). The Chinese are damn eager but will not commit to a bid by the SOE (to lure the counters out into the open). This is a risky startegt for China must obtain FIRB approval and the SDL board can potentially engineer and recommend a deal with the counter part(ies) to frustrate a re-entrance by the Chinese.

The Chinese need to ask what happens if Sundance (with low-cost, high-grade, long-life, massive IO resource) slip through their fingers. Do they have a get-out-of-jail-card ? Do China have a Plan-B ?